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The US economy is about to take a hit.
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Booking for containers shipped from China to the US has fallen 45% year over year as of mid-April.
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And the Port of Los Angeles expects a 36% decline in vessels scheduled to arrive from China beginning tomorrow (May 4).
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Layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail are coming.
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What we've got in this edition:
- Earnings report. See which tech companies beat or missed expectations + investor insights included.
- New kid on the block. Tesla gains new competitor.
- Weekly stock picks. Stock pick #1 had growth across all business sectors. Stock pick #2 is going to ride the AI wave all the way to the bank.
DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not monetary advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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Week of April 28, 2025
| β² S&P 500 |
5,686.67 |
+2.99% |
| β² Nasdaq |
17,977.73 |
+3.75% |
| β² DOW |
41,317.43 |
+2.66% |
| β² FTSE 100 |
8,596.35 |
+2.15% |
| β² Bitcoin |
$96,757.30 |
+3.17% |
| β² Ethereum |
$1,838.74 |
+2.53% |
*Stock data as of market close on May 2, 2025. Cryptocurrency data as of 3:00pm PT.
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π¨ Markets
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recouped all of their losses since "Liberation Day" on April 2 (reciprocal tariffs announcement).
- After dropping to $75k on Apr 9, Bitcoin is gradually getting closer to its ATH of $106k from Dec 2024. Here's the bullish case for why Bitcoin could hit $1.5M by 2030.
- Market sentiment has shifted closer to NEUTRAL -- more people are buying/selling and stock returns are outperforming bonds by 14%.
π° Earnings
| Company |
EPS |
Revenue |
Investor Takeaway |
| SNAP |
π Beat |
π Beat |
Getting closer to profitability. High-risk, high-reward. |
| SPOT |
π Miss |
π Miss |
Shifting focus from growth to profits. Opportunity for speculative play. |
| PYPL |
π Beat |
π Miss |
Steady user growth and 40% market share. Bullish trajectory. |
| MSFT |
π Beat |
π Beat |
Revenue/margin growth across all businesses. Reliable long-term investment. |
| META |
π Beat |
π Beat |
Resurgence of ad revenue and big cash flow continues. Strong long-term growth play. |
| QCOM |
π Beat |
π Beat |
Planting long-term seeds in AI, auto, and edge computing. |
| AAPL |
π Beat |
π Beat |
Growth has slowed. Good for stability and capital return. Bad for high-growth AI exposure. |
| AMZN |
π Beat |
π Beat |
High profitability. Long-term winner from compounding power of cloud + logistics + AI. |
(See full earnings calendar here.)
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π’ Economic Reports
The US economy added 177,000 jobs last month, well above expectations of 133,000. Unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.
βMarket Impact: βοΈ Bullish
More Americans are filing for earlier Social Security benefits this year than last year.
βMarket Impact: βοΈ Bearish
GDP for Q1 2025 contracted by 0.3%.
βMarket Impact: βοΈ Bearish
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π Megacap: Microsoft (MSFT)β
β
π Publicly traded since 1986
π° Specializes in cloud computing, AI, and software
π Headquarters in Redmond, Washingtonβ
β
Financial Green Flags:
β
Net income is up 18% Year-over-Year
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Diluted EPS are up 18% Year-over-Year
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Operating income is up 16% Year-over-Year
β
Risk/Opportunity Radar:
β‘οΈ In its latest earnings report, Microsoft saw growth in every part of its business.
β‘οΈ Microsoft projects revenue between $73.15 billion and $74.25 billion for the current quarter, well above expectations of $72.26 billion.
β‘οΈ The company plans an increase in capital expenditures for AI, but say itβs being careful not to overshoot on demand.
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Investor Lens:
Microsoft has been around for a while and isn't going away anytime soon. It probably won't 10x your investment at its current market cap, but it's a solid company to include in any portfolio.
β‘οΈ Medium Cap: Innodata Inc (INOD)β
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π Publicly traded since 1993
π° Specializes in data collection and AI model training
π Headquarters in Hackensack, New Jersey
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Financial Green Flags:
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Net income is up 523% Year-over-Year
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Diluted EPS are up 520% Year-over-Year
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Operating income is up 343% Year-over-Yearβ
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Risk/Opportunity Radar:
β‘οΈ By virtue of specializing in high-quality training data for AI models, Innodata has a strategic advantage in the current AI revolution.
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Investor Lens:
Strategically positioned to benefit from the AI craze, Innodata is a medium-risk, high-reward play.
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π High Impact | Epic Games Launches Its Own Webshops
- What happened: Epic Games Store adds new feature that allows developers to open webshops to offer players out-of-app purchases to circumvent fees from Apple and Google.
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Investor Impact:
- Bearish for Apple and Alphabet -- Direct revenue reduction from app store commissions.
- If gamers adopt Epicβs webshop to save money, it might encourage other publishers (think Roblox or Riot) to build their own webstores.
- π Key Point: Epic's move could shake the foundation of the app store economy and force Apple/Google to lower fees, loosen rules, or risk losing developer loyalty.
π Moderate Impact | Slate Auto Emerges as Competitor to Tesla
- What happened: Bezos-backed Slate Auto revealed its analog EV Pickup truck that will cost less than $20,000.
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Investor Impact:
- Bearish for Tesla (and Ford, Rivian, GM) -- signals a race to the bottom in EV pickup pricing.
- Damages Tesla's narrative around cost leadership.
- π Key Point: Potential downward pressure on TSLA stock if investors fear growing competition and margin erosion.
π Watchlist | China's Huawei Develops New AI Chip (Ascend 910D)
- What happened: Huawei came out with its new Ascend 910D AI chip, seeking to surpass Nvidia's H100.
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Investor Impact:
- Bearish for Nvidia -- Still early in development but could cause revenue headwinds for Nvidia.
- Nvidia's pricing power and market share at risk in the medium-to-long term.
- π Key Point: The AI Arms Race will likely boost demand for Nvidia's chips in the short-term but will force re-pricing in the long-term due to increased competition.
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Equity Crowdfunding
βInvest in Olympian Motors, the car manufacturer that is building modular electric vehicles for the U.S. light-passenger vehicle market.
Highlights:
1οΈβ£ β $47M revenue pipeline. Booked 590+ orders for Olympian Model O1 and Model 84. (As of Mar 2025)
2οΈβ£ βοΈ Engineered a Fully-Modular Vehicle/Drivetrain (eMVDS). Reduced tooling/machinery costs by ~80%.
3οΈβ£ Current Investors: Y-Combinator, Climate Capital, Mobility Vision, Reunited, Soma & Collaborative.
Note: If you're serious about investing in any of these startups, do a Porter's Five Forces Analysis first.β
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Venture Capital
π‘οΈ Chaos Industries, a defense tech startup, raised $275M at a valuation of $2B.
πͺͺ Persona, an identity verification and management platform, raised $200M at a valuation of $2B.
π Veza, a data security platform, raised $108M at a valuation of $808M.
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π‘ Top Google Searches:
-
"ups layoffs amazon" (π Spiked on Apr 29)
- More layoffs likely coming to logistics sector. The Port of Los Angeles expects a 36% decline in vessels scheduled to arrive from China beginning May 4.
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"gdp" (π Spiked on Apr 30)
- US economy shrunk by 0.3% from January to March 2025 due to trade deficit caused by tariffs.
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"apple earnings" (π Moderate rise on May 1)
- AAPL beat EPS and revenue expectations but its stock still went down due to lowered forecast and expected $900M extra costs from tariffs.
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π§ Twitter Social Sentiment Scorecard (Apr 28 - May 2):
| Trending |
Crowd Mood |
Commentary |
| USDC |
π Bullish |
Global stablecoin adoption is accelerating. |
| $PLTR |
π Ultra-Bullish |
Stock growth being fueled by hype. |
| $HOOD |
π Bullish |
Sustained user growth and diversifying revenue streams. |
| Jim Cramer |
π¬ Nervous |
He said there won't be a recession...so get ready for a recession. |
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Vibe Check
Thoughts on this week's newsletter?
β π€π€π€ Keep 'em coming! β
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β π€π€ Not great, not terrible β
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β π€ Weak sauce β
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Thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!
- Tech Fizz Team
DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not monetary advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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