People aren't too thrilled about it (us included). The bill is expected to add $3 trillion to the US national debt over the next decade.
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This means more money will be printed. And inflation will likely come back with a vengeance.
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What we've got in this edition:
IPO Radar. See what company is planning to go public and why people are excited.
Alpha Stock Pick. This company is getting added to the S&P 500 and has exceeded EPS expectations for the past 9 quarters.
The AI Takeover. CEOs across America are sounding the alarm about mass replacement of human workers by AI. How would this affect the stock market vs. the economy?
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*Stock market data as of market close on July 3, 2025. Crypto prices as of 1:30 PM PT on July 4, 2025.
See what people are saying about the Figma IPO in the /investing Reddit thread
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Economic Reports
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๐ Big, Beautiful Bill. According to Yale's Budget Lab, the new bill will cost the bottom 20% of taxpayers $560 a year on average, while the top 20% will get an average annual boost of $6,055. It will also increase the deficit by about $3 Trillion. โ
Market Impact: โ๏ธ Bearish
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๐ Immigration crackdown slows economic growth. The Trump Administration's deportation tactics have reduced net immigration to 600K annually (three-fold reduction compared to 2024). Oxford Economics estimates GDP will be 0.25% lower in the long term as the newly passed tax bill funds more immigration enforcement. โ
Market Impact: โ๏ธ Bearish
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๐ The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached all-time highs - see 13 charts that show how the market rebounded after April's tariff announcements. โ โ
Profile: Cloud monitoring as-a-service company. IPO'd in September 2019. Market cap of $53.58B. Last closed at $155.15/share.
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Financials: Reported Q1 2025 revenue of $762 million, marking a 25% YoY increase. Has exceeded EPS expectations for the past 9 quarters.
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Source: TradingView
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Risk/Opportunity: Stock's valuation is very high (P/E ratio ~300) and being added to the S&P 500 is already priced in so any slight erosion of margins could cause price correction. However, the valuation is justified by the company's rapid revenue growth and expanding profitability.
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The Verdict: Datadog has solid financials and has consistently generated positive returns. Being added to the S&P 500 will increase its stock price in the short term due to institutional investors buying and is also a strong long term play based on positive outlook.
Amazon is at the forefront of this "labor transition". The company will soon have as many robots as humans working at its facilities. It has already deployed more than one million robots in its workplaces and 75% of Amazon's global deliveries are assisted in some way by robotics.
Economic impact: To put it simply, unemployment will rise if most companies embrace the practice of replacing human workers with AI. Sure, new jobs might emerge with AI adoption, but up-skilling takes time. High unemployment would inevitably have a negative effect on the economy as consumer spending would slow and consumer confidence would fall.
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Stock market impact: The reason some companies are so quick to replace humans with AI is because it will improve their earnings. Robots/AI agents don't need PTO or healthcare. They can work 24/7. However, it's important to note that the economy and the equity market are not the same thing. If the stock market is on the rise, that doesn't mean the economy is doing well.
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๐ฃ๏ธ Social Signals
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Source: @WatcherGuru on Twitter
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๐ง Twitter Social Sentiment Scorecard (June 30 - July 3):
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Trend
Mood
Insight
One Big, Beautiful Bill
๐ Bearish
The new bill will increase budget deficit by $3 Trillion.
Bitcoin ETFs
๐ Bullish
BlackRock makes more money from its BTC ETF than its S&P 500 ETF.
Trump and DOGE
๐คฌ Angry
DOGE cut funding for NWS/NOAA which will make weather forecasting harder.
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๐ก Top Google Searches (June 30 - July 3):
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Trend
Search Volume
Insight
"hood stock"
โฌ๏ธ 200%
Robinhood launches tokenized US Stocks and plans to create its own blockchain.
"oracle stock"
โฌ๏ธ 100%
OpenAI signed $30B data center deal with Oracle.
"figma ipo"
โฌ๏ธ 100%
Figma planning to go public; strong financials based on S-1 filing.
As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!
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Tech Fizz Team, signing off ๐ซก
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DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not monetary advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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