According to an article that was published earlier this month, there is an 8% probability of the stock market dropping by at least 30% some time over the next year.
Conversely, the same approximation method was used to calculate an 11% probability that the stock market rallies by 30% at some point over the next year.
Both scenarios seem unlikely, but hey, at least the 30% rally is more likely than the 30% drop!
What we've got in this edition:
๐จ Market News Highlights.
๐ฌ AI Prompts. Use AI to help you decide what precious metals to invest in.
๐ฅท Insider Trading. Who's making multi-million dollar buy/sell trades?
*Stock market data as of market close on Dec 12, 2025. Crypto prices as of 1:00 PM MST on Dec 14, 2025.
MARKET RADAR
๐ SpaceX to Pursue 2026 IPO. Elon Muskโs SpaceX started discussions with banks for a June or July IPO that could value the rocket-maker above $1T (making it the largest IPO ever).
๐ค OpenAI releases GPT-5.2. The new model comes in three variants: Instant for quick queries, Thinking for coding and planning, and Pro for your hardest challenges. GPT-5.2 Thinking matched or beat human experts 70.9% of the time on knowledge work while running 11x faster.
๐ฆ Interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at a third meeting straight and dropped benchmark borrowing rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
๐ Economic slowdown in 2026. Several economic indicators are pointing to a weakening economy in the next year.
EARNINGS
Companies Reporting Earnings, Week of December 14th, 2025:
โฌ๏ธ Use the prompt below to save hours on research and help you decide which metal(s) to add to your portfolio (gold, silver, copper, etc).
โ๏ธ PROMPT: PAIRWISE DECISION ENGINE + TRADE CONSTRUCTION
๐ก What this prompt does: Analyzes 5-year price behavior, multi-horizon returns, volatility, and the financial performance of relevant mining companies to help you decide what physical metals, ETFs, or mining companies to add to your portfolio.
Role: You are a systematic portfolio engineer.
โ
Task: Run pairwise comparisons between metals (Gold vs Silver, Gold vs Copper, Silver vs Copper, etc.) and recommend the single best metal OR a two-metal blend based on quantified evidence.
โ
Rules:
- Use last 5 years of price data (daily/weekly).
- Evaluate both standalone strength and diversification benefit.
- You must incorporate miner fundamentals as a second-stage filter.
โ
Steps:
1. For each pair, compute:
- Relative strength over 5Y, 1Y, 6M
- Rolling 6M volatility and rolling 12M volatility
- Rolling correlation and correlation stability (does it spike during stress?)
- Maximum drawdown (5Y) and time-to-recovery
โ
2. Identify which metal dominates the other based on:
- Higher returns for similar/lower risk, OR
- Similar returns with much lower drawdown, OR
- Superior crisis behavior (define crisis as top 5% equity drawdowns)
โ
3. Miner filter: If the โwinningโ metalโs miners show:
deteriorating margins, rising debt, or persistent dilution, then downgrade the metal by one tier unless the metalโs own price trend is exceptionally strong.
โ
4. Portfolio construction:
- If one metal clearly dominates: recommend that metal.
- If results are mixed: recommend a two-metal blend optimized for max Sharpe
subject to max drawdown constraint (user-specified, else assume -25% max DD
tolerance).
โ
5. Provide a trade implementation plan:
- Best vehicle(s): spot ETF vs miner ETF vs selected miners
- Suggested position sizing
- Risk management: stop/exit logic based on trend + vol expansion
- Rebalance frequency
โ
Output format:
- Pairwise matrix summary (who beats whom and why)
- Final recommendation (single metal or blend) + implementation plan
- Miner fundamentals โpass/failโ checklist
โ
SMART MONEY TRACKER
๐ฅท Recent Insider Trades for Week of Dec 8, 2025
As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!
Tech Fizz Team, signing off ๐ซก
DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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