According to an article that was published earlier this month, there is an 8% probability of the stock market dropping by at least 30% some time over the next year.
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Conversely, the same approximation method was used to calculate an 11% probability that the stock market rallies by 30% at some point over the next year.
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Both scenarios seem unlikely, but hey, at least the 30% rally is more likely than the 30% drop!
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What we've got in this edition:
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๐จ Market News Highlights.
๐ฌ AI Prompts. Use AI to help you decide what precious metals to invest in.
๐ฅท Insider Trading. Who's making multi-million dollar buy/sell trades?
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*Stock market data as of market close on Dec 12, 2025. Crypto prices as of 1:00 PM MST on Dec 14, 2025.
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MARKET RADAR
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๐ SpaceX to Pursue 2026 IPO. Elon Muskโs SpaceX started discussions with banks for a June or July IPO that could value the rocket-maker above $1T (making it the largest IPO ever).
๐ค OpenAI releases GPT-5.2. The new model comes in three variants: Instant for quick queries, Thinking for coding and planning, and Pro for your hardest challenges. GPT-5.2 Thinking matched or beat human experts 70.9% of the time on knowledge work while running 11x faster.
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๐ฆ Interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at a third meeting straight and dropped benchmark borrowing rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
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๐ Economic slowdown in 2026. Several economic indicators are pointing to a weakening economy in the next year.
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EARNINGS
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Companies Reporting Earnings, Week of December 14th, 2025:
โฌ๏ธ Use the prompt below to save hours on research and help you decide which metal(s) to add to your portfolio (gold, silver, copper, etc).
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โ๏ธ PROMPT: PAIRWISE DECISION ENGINE + TRADE CONSTRUCTION
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๐ก What this prompt does: Analyzes 5-year price behavior, multi-horizon returns, volatility, and the financial performance of relevant mining companies to help you decide what physical metals, ETFs, or mining companies to add to your portfolio.
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Role: You are a systematic portfolio engineer.
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Task: Run pairwise comparisons between metals (Gold vs Silver, Gold vs Copper, Silver vs Copper, etc.) and recommend the single best metal OR a two-metal blend based on quantified evidence.
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Rules:
- Use last 5 years of price data (daily/weekly).
- Evaluate both standalone strength and diversification benefit.
- You must incorporate miner fundamentals as a second-stage filter.
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Steps:
1. For each pair, compute:
- Relative strength over 5Y, 1Y, 6M
- Rolling 6M volatility and rolling 12M volatility
- Rolling correlation and correlation stability (does it spike during stress?)
- Maximum drawdown (5Y) and time-to-recovery
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2. Identify which metal dominates the other based on:
- Higher returns for similar/lower risk, OR
- Similar returns with much lower drawdown, OR
- Superior crisis behavior (define crisis as top 5% equity drawdowns)
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3. Miner filter: If the โwinningโ metalโs miners show:
deteriorating margins, rising debt, or persistent dilution, then downgrade the metal by one tier unless the metalโs own price trend is exceptionally strong.
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4. Portfolio construction:
- If one metal clearly dominates: recommend that metal.
- If results are mixed: recommend a two-metal blend optimized for max Sharpe
subject to max drawdown constraint (user-specified, else assume -25% max DD
tolerance).
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5. Provide a trade implementation plan:
- Best vehicle(s): spot ETF vs miner ETF vs selected miners
- Suggested position sizing
- Risk management: stop/exit logic based on trend + vol expansion
- Rebalance frequency
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Output format:
- Pairwise matrix summary (who beats whom and why)
- Final recommendation (single metal or blend) + implementation plan
- Miner fundamentals โpass/failโ checklist
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SMART MONEY TRACKER
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๐ฅท Recent Insider Trades for Week of Dec 8, 2025
As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!
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Tech Fizz Team, signing off ๐ซก
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DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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