November 16, 2025 | Read Online​

👋 Hey there, Tech Fizz here.

The US government shutdown is finally over after lasting 43 days (a new record). Great news for government employees!

But let's be honest, the shutdown probably didn't affect your every day life very much.

👇 Do you agree or disagree?

​ 👍 Agree, didn't affect me at all ​

​
​ 👎 Disagree, life was not the same ​
​

What we've got in this edition:

• 🚨 Market News Highlights.
• 💬 AI Prompts. How to increase AI response accuracy by 10-33%.
• 🌊 ETF Flow Analysis. How does capital flow line up with ETF sector performance?

MARKET RADAR

⏱️ Longest government shutdown ends. The shutdown lasted a record 43 days, and all ~750k furloughed federal employees will be going back to work.

🌍 Semiconductors are the most important sector in the world right now. Every major technological trend, from AI to automotive electrification and national-security supply chains, depends on advanced chips.

🤖 OpenAI releases GPT-5.1 to all ChatGPT users. GPT-5.1 Instant is a high-volume model that uses adaptive reasoning to decide when to think longer on hard prompts and GPT-5.1 Thinking can adjust its approach so simple tasks are faster and complex work gets deeper analysis.

💵 Trump's $2,000 Tariff Dividend. President Trump considered the idea of $2,000 checks for every low- and medium-income American using revenue from tariffs.

🏠 Trump administration proposes 50-year mortgages. This would lower monthly payments, but it would nearly double total interest costs and risks inflating home prices.

EARNINGS

Companies Reporting Earnings, Week of November 16th, 2025:

Join EarningsHub

AI PROMPTS

📑 A research paper titled "Chain of Questions: Guiding Multimodal Curiosity in Language Models" was published a couple of months ago by researchers at Edinburgh Napier University.

The study found that adding "curiosity" to prompts enhances AI accuracy by 10-33% on complex problems.

The Curious Student Prompt:

You are a smart and curious student. Read the given context, then answer the question. When answering, think step by step first and then form the answer. You are encouraged to add some self-asking and self-answering questions when thinking, such as 'What if', 'Why', 'How', etc.

👇 Let's apply this prompt method to investing and see what we get 👇

⚙️ Sample Prompt:

You are a smart and curious finance student. Knowing that I have a high risk tolerance and I want to retire in the next 10 years, plan my investing strategy. Think step by step, but ask yourself questions along the way - how will the deteriorating labor market affect the domestic/global economy? What assets perform well during high inflation? What sectors will benefit the most from the AI boom in the next few years?

Note: We used Gemini 2.5 Pro for testing this prompt.

📤 Sample Output:

Phase 1: Macro Analysis (The "Why")

Before allocating capital, you must diagnose the environment.

• The "Shutdown Hangover": The recent 6-week government shutdown (ended mid-Nov 2025) has created a data vacuum. The Fed is flying blind, making rate cuts less certain. This creates short-term volatility—which is your buying opportunity.

• Labor Market: We are seeing a "low-hire, more-fire" dynamic. Unemployment is ticking up. This usually signals a late-cycle economy, meaning growth stocks could face headwinds unless they have strong secular tailwinds (like AI).

• Inflation: It is sticky at ~3%. This hurts bond prices (yields rise) and cash purchasing power. You need assets that outrun this.

Phase 2: Asset Allocation (The "What")

For a high-risk tolerance student, an aggressive 70/20/10 split is appropriate:

1. 70% Aggressive Equities (The Engine)

• AI "Application" Layer: The hardware trade (chips) has matured. The next boom is in companies applying AI to save costs.
  • Sectors:Healthcare (AI diagnostics/drug discovery), Fintech (AI fraud detection), and Robotics/Manufacturing.
  • Why: These sectors benefit even if the labor market cools because they offer efficiency/cost-cutting to other businesses.

• Emerging Markets (India): While global growth is slowing (3.2%), India remains a bright spot. It serves as a hedge against US-centric valuation compression.

• Defense & Aerospace: This is your "Geopolitical Hedge." With trade tensions rising and global fragmentation, this sector tends to perform well when the broader market jitters.

2. 20% Alternatives (The Inflation Hedge)

• Crypto (Bitcoin/Ethereum): Currently in a bear market (BTC <$100k post-shutdown).
  • Strategy: Use the current dip. Institutional adoption (ETFs) provides a floor, and crypto acts as a high-beta liquidity play. It correlates with "risk-on" sentiment but historically hedges against currency debasement (fiscal deficits).

• Commodities (Gold/Industrial Metals): Gold is for safety; Copper/Lithium is for the "electrification" trade that continues regardless of GDP slow growth.

3. 10% "Dry Powder" (Cash/Yield)

• High-Yield Cash/Short-Term Treasuries: With the Fed potentially pausing cuts, yields remain attractive (~4%+). Keep this liquid to buy dips when the market overreacts to bad data.

Phase 3: Execution Strategy (Step-by-Step)

We didn't want to make this newsletter section too long, so if you want to see the execution strategy that the AI came up with, you can find it here:

​Google Doc Link​

SMART MONEY TRACKER

ETF flow analysis for week of Nov 10, 2025:

🏥 $XLV - Healthcare Fund: +$667.6M inflow 💻 $XLK - Tech Fund: +$330.1M inflow

🛢️ $XLE - Energy Fund: +$266.6M inflow

🏦 $XLF - Financial Fund: +$169.0M inflow 🏠 $XLRE - Real Estate Fund: +$44.8M inflow

🏗️ $XLI - Industrials Fund: -$20.7M outflow

⚡️ $XLU - Utilities Fund: -$147.2M outflow

Some observations:

• The Healthcare sector performed very well and its largest ETF saw a massive inflow of over half a billion dollars.
• Once again, $SOXS (Semiconductors) made gains while the rest of the Tech sector lagged behind.
• Although $XLF (Finanical Fund) saw an inflow, the Financials Sector did not perform well.

We'll be the first ones to admit that ETF capital flow is a "lagging indicator" when it comes to the market because the numbers are updated after the catalyst has already happened.

Next week we will explore the most popular "leading indicators" and how they can be used to predict market outcomes.

Whenever you're ready to take the next step

• Check out our Top 20 Investment Research Tools​

• Get better at investing with our Top 10 Stock Analysis AI Prompts​

• We're building a free paper trading tool you can use to practice investing with virtual money. Join the waitlist for early access.

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😎 Vibe Check

Thoughts on this week's newsletter?

​ 🤑🤑🤑 Keep 'Em Coming, Big Boy ​

​
​ 🤑🤑 Not Great, Not Terrible ​

​
​ 🤑 Weak Sauce ​
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As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!

Tech Fizz Team, signing off 🫡

DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.