π Tariffs fuel inflation + Core PCE inflation comes in at 2.9%. Nearly half of large companies hiked prices due to tariffs, with most planning further increases in the next six months. Many face shrinking margins and weak sales, as the Supreme Court weighs Trumpβs tariff authority.
Problematic? Not really. It's equivalent to there being "more recipes than there are ingredients", as Sam Ro from Tker.co puts it.
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So in the spirit of this new development, let's use an AI prompt to find the best ETFs out there (based on returns and expense ratio).
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(We recommend using Perplexity for finance/investing prompts)
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#Role:
You are a savvy financial advisor with a PhD in wealth management.
#Action:
Your task is to analyze all 4,400 ETFs listed in the US and rank them based on annualized returns (high to low) and expense ratios (low to high).
#Output:
The output should be a table of the top 10 ETFs. For each, include its annualized return, expense ratio, creation date, and average trading volume.
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SMART MONEY TRACKER
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This week, we're doing this section a little differently.
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Instead of looking at suspicious insider trading or hedge fund activity, we're going to examine macro trends to predict where "smart money" will flow next.
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For starters, let's look at the Global M2 Money Supply:
This is basically a measure of how much money is present in global capital markets. As you can see, the higher the money supply, the higher the S&P 500 goes (with a 3 month lag).
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Right now, the money supply is following an upward trend, so expect the stock market to keep rising as well.
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Keep in mind, there could be a trend reversal at some point, so it's a good idea to visit this graph at least once a month.
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Next up, let's look at the US ISM Manufacturing PMI:
Source: ycharts.com
This economic indicator is essentially a thermometer for measuring manufacturing activity in the US.
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When the PMI value is above 50, this indicates that there is economic expansion in manufacturing.
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On the flip side, a PMI value below 50 indicates that there is economic contraction in manufacturing.
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For the month of September, the US experienced a contraction (based on PMI of 49.10).
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It's difficult to predict what October will look like, but more than likely this month will also experience contraction due to economic uncertainty from tariffs.
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Lastly, we have the Copper to Gold Ratio:
Source: longtermtrends.net
This metric is calculated by dividing the current price of copper per ounce by the current price of gold per ounce.
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We can think of this data as complementary to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI because it also provides insights into the state of the economy.
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In essence, a rising ratio signals that the economy is expanding, and a falling ratio signals that the economy is contracting or that investors are fearful.
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This is because copper is a key industrial metal that is used globally in a wide range of industrial applications and so it performs strongly when the global economy is firing on all cylinders.
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Gold, on the other hand, is the most widely recognized safe-haven asset among investors. Therefore, during times of economic and geopolitical distress it generally tends to perform well, making it a leading indicator of fear.
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As you can see in the graph, the Copper to Gold ratio has been in a downward trend.
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This makes sense. Manufacturing activity has been in contraction for the past ~6 months and gold recently hit a record high of over $3,990.
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Wrapping Up
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Putting all of this together, we expect stocks, gold, and bitcoin (a.k.a. digital gold) to maintain their upward momentum.
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The increase in global money supply will keep pushing stocks up, while economic uncertainty/contraction will compel investors to pursue safe-haven assets.
As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned for next week's edition!
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Tech Fizz Team, signing off π«‘
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DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice; it is for educational and informational purposes only. Stocks can be risky and speculative. Please do your own research before investing.
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